LIVE TOOL Our Monte Carlo simulation • 100,000 runs • All 16 TI 2026 teams • August 2026

Select any of the 16 TI 2026 group stage teams below to see their Monte Carlo odds: probability of reaching the main event, direct top-3 qualification, surviving the elimination round, or being sent home from the Swiss group stage.

The numbers come from our own simulation model — not a poll, not guesswork — trained on 148 real Bo3 and Bo5 series played across six major 2026 LANs. We built Elo ratings from real pairwise results, simulated the Swiss format 100,000 times, and counted outcomes. Read the full methodology post for every assumption, data source, and confidence caveat.

TI 2026 Group Stage Odds

Select a team to see Monte Carlo simulation results (100,000 runs, real 2026 LAN data).

main event probability
direct top 3 qualification
to elimination round
directly eliminated
4-0 sweep: 0-4 sweep: Series in dataset:

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TeamSmurf Monte Carlo sim, 100k runs, fixed seed 42. Data: BLAST SLAM VI/VII, DreamLeague S28, ESL One Birmingham 2026, EWC 2026, 1win Essence II. Full methodology

How the Simulation Works

We built an Elo rating system from scratch using pairwise Bo3 and Bo5 results between TI-level teams from six major 2026 LANs: BLAST SLAM VI, DreamLeague S28, ESL One Birmingham 2026, BLAST SLAM VII, EWC 2026, and 1win Essence II. Each real series updates both teams’ ratings — wins push up, losses pull down — with K-factors scaled by match type (K=48 for playoff Bo3/Bo5, K=32 for group Bo3, K=16 for Bo1 formats).

Those Elo ratings feed a Swiss bracket simulator. Each round, teams are paired by record (same-record teams play each other). The simulation continues until every team has either 4 wins (advance) or 4 losses (eliminate). Under TI 2026 rules, the top 3 by final record advance directly to the main event, teams finishing 4th through 13th enter an elimination round where 5 more advance, and 14th through 16th go home.

We ran 100,000 complete bracket simulations with a fixed random seed (42) for reproducibility. Each percentage in the widget is the fraction of those 100,000 simulations where that outcome occurred for the selected team.

What Each Number Means

Metric What it represents
Main event probability Share of simulations where the team reaches the TI main event bracket via any path — direct top 3 or surviving the elimination round
Direct top 3 qualification Probability of finishing in places 1-3 in the Swiss group stage and advancing directly, skipping the elimination round
To elimination round Probability of finishing 4th-13th and having to win further matches in the 10-team elimination bracket to reach the main event
Directly eliminated Probability of finishing 14th-16th in the Swiss and being eliminated without any additional chances
4-0 sweep Probability of going undefeated in the Swiss with 4 wins and 0 losses — the best possible group stage result
0-4 sweep Probability of going 0-4 — the earliest possible elimination from the group stage

Frequently Asked Questions

QWhy does Team Falcons show 42% when they are a top-3 seed?
Seeding does not enter the model directly — Elo ratings do. Falcons played 29 verified series against TI-level opponents in 2026 and lost enough of them (including BLAST SLAM VII) that their Elo drifted below average. The sim reflects their actual 2026 results, not their reputation or seeding position. See the full post for the Falcons deep-dive section.
QWhat does the Low Confidence badge mean?
Low Confidence teams had zero verified series against TI-level opponents in our 2026 LAN dataset. Their Elo starts at the neutral default of 1500, so their sim results are essentially the probability for a completely unknown team — roughly average across the bracket. Treat their percentages as a placeholder, not a prediction.
QWhy do the main event and other columns not quite add up to 100%?
Main event probability sums two separate paths: direct top-3 qualification and surviving the elimination round. The columns “to elimination round” and “directly eliminated” plus “direct top 3” sum to 100% within rounding. The elimination-round teams then split between those who advance to the main event and those who do not — both are captured in the percentages.
QHow current is this data?
The dataset covers six events through August 1, 2026: BLAST SLAM VI (February), DreamLeague S28 (March), ESL One Birmingham 2026 (March), BLAST SLAM VII (June), EWC 2026 (July), and a partial 1win Essence II (July-August). 148 total series between TI-qualified teams. No pub data, no community rankings — only LAN results between the actual TI 2026 field.
QWill you update the sim if results change before TI starts?
Yes — if significant LAN results involving TI teams occur before the group stage starts, we will re-run the simulation and update both this tool and the methodology post. The model is fully reproducible: fixed data, fixed seed, open methodology.

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